Trading for Justin Upton a Good Risk - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

Trading for Justin Upton a Good Risk Stuck

Posted on November 12, 2012 at 10:22 AM.

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Since Kevin Towers took over the General Manager position for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2010 it seems like an annual winter tradition of having Justin Upton in trade rumors. Towers has always been a GM who floats names around just to gauge interest and value. It is a common practice among most GM�s, but Towers was seeing the value of a player who was just 22 years old and already considered a cornerstone of the team. Ultimately, Towers would hold onto his young right fielder and was rewarded with the best season of Upton�s young career. At age 23, Upton posted a .289/.369/.529 line with 39 doubles, 5 triples, 31 home runs, and 21 stolen bases.

The young outfielder bounced back from a rough, injury plagued 2010 to finish fourth in the MVP voting and lead the surprising Diamondbacks to an equally surprising division title. It seemed that the Diamondbacks were set. They were a team on the rise with a good core led by one of the most promising young hitters in the league. Since Upton came into the league as a 19 year old in 2007, everyone has waited for the breakout. 2011 looked like it would be that breakout.

Everything went terribly wrong in 2012. The Diamondbacks regressed, something that wasn�t all that surprising. But, Upton regressed too. He got off to a slow start during the first two months of the season. He finished the first half of the season at .273/.353/.401 with just 7 home runs. But, it wasn�t even just the down production. He seemingly fell out of favor with his organization. There were more stories of a lack of hustle, missing fly balls, and just a general apathy about the game.

In Upton�s defense, these stories are almost always a product of a poor season. Almost every player can have a highlight reel made of them jogging to first base on a given play or having a defensive lapse. Over 162 games, it is likely to happen. We don�t like to admit that, but the idea of all-out hustle 100 percent of the time is mostly a myth.

The Diamondbacks were disappointing and Upton had moments where he didn�t run things out. His defense suffered too. Normally a plus defender, Upton�s defensive metrics all represented a career worst. His minus-2.3 UZR and +2 DRS are the worst totals of his Major League career. He did manage to put together a solid second half as he hit .287/.357/.460 with 10 home runs. But, his overall season was quite disappointing. He lost 14 points off of his on base percentage from 2011. He lost almost 100 points off of his slugging percentage and 45 points off of his wOBA. His BABIP was largely the same, taking bad luck out of the equation.

And now the Diamondbacks seem to be actively shopping him this winter. This winter seems a bit more serious, something more than just measuring value. Is it wise to trade a player who has been in the Major Leagues for six years, but is only entering his age 25 season?

That is a difficult question. If the Diamondbacks believe that Upton is going to be a frustrating, inconsistent talent who is prone to down years and a lack of focus, then they should deal him. Despite the poor 2012, his value is still high enough to land a couple of pieces that could make the Diamondbacks better.

While Upton has had two down power years in the last three seasons, it is important to note that his on base percentage has remained consistent. After battling injuries during the 2009 and 2010 seasons, he has been one of the most durable players in the game in the last two years. After posting strikeout rates over 20 percent in each of his first four years, he has settled in under the 20 percent mark in the last two seasons.

In other words, there is still quite a high ceiling for him. That ceiling is still that of a superstar. If the Diamondbacks trade him, they are taking a chance that they are trading a superstar. He has already posted seasons of 4.8 and 6.3 WAR. As he enters his prime, there should be more consistency with his power and approach. It is easy to think of him as a disappointment and a symbol for the Diamondbacks supposed regression. But, Upton wasn�t the reason why Daniel Hudson could only make 9 starts or that Ian Kennedy went from Cy Young candidate to replacement level pitcher. His season was poor, but the Diamondbacks offense still ranked in the top five in most every category.

The potential fits for Upton are many. He has three years remaining on his current contract. He�ll make $9.75 million this season before his salary bumps to $14.25 million for 2014 and 2015. For 2013, he fits in any budget, even the small market clubs like Tampa Bay. But, those last two seasons would make it difficult for a team like Tampa Bay to dedicate approximately 40 percent of their budget to one player. But, he makes sense for a team like Tampa because they are deep in pitching and do have some interesting position shortstop prospects like Hak-Ju Lee and Tim Beckham. The Rangers are also good fits as they can offer a shortstop (Elvis Andrus) and some pitching.

Justin Upton could improve almost any club. He makes sense for a team like the Mariners or the Orioles as both franchises lack an offensive cornerstone-type player. The Red Sox would make sense, but they don�t fit as well in terms of what they can give back. Any team interested in the talented 25 year old will have to surrender a package befitting a 25 year old potential superstar who has already produced on that level. There is a risk, however. The risk of Upton forever being an inconsistent talent is one that is a real possibility. Giving up a high level package of players for his services may be too great a risk for some teams.

Despite the potential negatives, trading for Justin Upton is a good risk. He has had fluctuations in power, but his strikeouts have cut down, his on base percentage has remained consistent, and he hasn�t even reached his prime. For a team looking for a high end offensive player to build around, acquiring Justin Upton would more than fit that need.